Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
