Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.