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Growing concerns have emerged about the chance of armed conflict between East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been few indications of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Past Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the ruler cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war ensued, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the war was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in the country's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down anew.